NAZARETH // A year on from Operation Cast Lead, Israel’s
offensive in Gaza, the threads of a possible Middle East peace are so knotted
that they look impossible to disentangle.
A right-wing government in Tel Aviv has dared to snub the US
administration by barely enforcing what has become a partial and very temporary
freeze on the expansion of its settlement programme in the West Bank. Israeli
generals, meanwhile, proclaim that they are gearing up for an even fiercer
repeat of the attack on Gaza last winter that killed around 1,400 Palestinians,
most of them civilians.
Hamas and Fatah, the two rival Palestinian
factions ruling respectively Gaza and the West Bank, have failed to reconcile
despite intensive Egyptian mediation. The power of Mahmoud Abbas, president of
the Palestinian Authority and Israel’s only putative partner for a peace deal,
is in terminal decline over failing to win any substantial concessions from
Israel.
Hamas, on the other hand, not only survived
relatively unscathed the Israeli attack of a year ago but is reported now to be
testing rockets that can reach Tel Aviv. It also appears to be boxing Israel
into an uncomfortably tight corner in negotiations to extract its soldier, Gilad
Shalit, from a captivity of more than three years. A deal releasing hundreds of
Palestinian prisoners in return for Sgt Shalit would be a tactical triumph for
Hamas and could possibly sound the death knell for Mr Abbas and the PA.
Egypt, having so far failed to make headway on either Palestinian
unity or the release of Sgt Shalit, is showing its displeasure. It is
implementing one of Israel’s stated goals in Operation Cast Lead – sealing off
Egypt’s border with Gaza – by building a steel wall underground to prevent
smuggling through tunnels.
Cutting the last lifeline for Gazans, who have endured an Israeli
chokehold lasting more than three years, may force either capitulation from
Hamas or – more likely – further confrontation with Israel.
Regionally, Israel has put great strain on its already cool
relations with its Arab neighbours, Egypt and Jordan, over Operation Cast Lead
and damaged its traditionally strong ties to Turkey, a potential peace broker.
Hizbollah, the Shia militia that has proved
to be Israel’s nemesis in south Lebanon, is reported to be stronger than ever
and is sitting in the Lebanese government. It has been rearming at a rate that,
according to the Israeli military, means it will be an even more fearsome
opponent than during Israel’s 2006 onslaught when it rained rockets down on the
Galilee.
The Iranian regime, the regional backer of both Hizbollah and
Hamas, is in the midst of internal political turmoil as it tries to suppress
protests from opposition groups and contend with the pressure for intensified
international sanctions to stop its supposed nuclear programme.
Should Tehran get a nuclear bomb, as Tel Aviv fears it may do
soon, the balance of regional power would inexorably tip away from Israel
towards Iran.
For Israel, all these elements are pushing towards war, probably
on more than one front, rather than peacemaking. Certainly, Iran, Hamas,
Hizbollah and the Lebanese military have all expressed concern that Israel has
them in its sights.
Israel has recently completed the renovation of all of its 5,000
or so public bomb shelters, and is investing heavily in the development of new
missile defence systems to fend off the expected response to an attack –
thousands of rockets from Hamas and Hizbollah, and more sophisticated missiles
from Iran.
Jeff Halper, a long-time analyst of Israel’s military strategies,
doubts that genuine peace talks with the Palestinians are possible in this
climate.
“I don’t see Israel negotiating, not unless Mahmoud Abbas is
prepared to capitulate to Israeli demands for an imposed peace. Only that might
restrain Israel at this stage,” he said. “But it seems extremely unlikely that
Abbas has the credibility to sign off on an Israeli deal when Hamas is in his
way.”
Instead Mr Halper fears that Israeli actions are being designed
to provoke another confrontation.
“Gaza is a pressure cooker waiting to explode again,” he said,
pointing to an Israeli siege that prevents the import of all but the most
essential humanitarian items.
Should Hamas try to break this siege, it may offer Israel the
chance to launch another operation, Mr Halper said.
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